Calling a Solar Storm Before It Hit

Solar storms can damage satellites, power grids, and communications, yet most space-weather warnings arrive as events unfold. Operators need lead time: a call made before the storm, specific enough to act on.

BOREALIS tracked the most active region on the Sun and, on June 4, issued a high-level watch for storm-driving conditions at Earth. The watch went on the record with scheduled checks at 24 and 48 hours, before any of those conditions arrived. SPARK then followed the event around the clock against independent observations.

1. June 4 · 01:18 UTC

   Watch issued

   BOREALIS issues a high-level watch for storm-driving conditions at Earth. Conditions are still quiet.

2. June 4

   Conditions turn

   Storm-driving conditions arrive and hold, exactly as the watch called for.

3. June 5 · 12:33 UTC

   The storm peaks

   The strongest conditions of the event arrive, 35 hours after the watch went on the record.

4. June 5 · 15:12 UTC

   Geomagnetic storm

   Earth's magnetic field reaches storm levels.

5. June 6

   Call confirmed

   The storm builds further as the solar wind tops 750 km/s. Both scheduled checks against independent observations pass.

• The watch came first: conditions at Earth were still quiet when BOREALIS issued it.
• Storm-driving conditions arrived and held, as the watch called for.
• The strongest conditions of the event arrived 35 hours after the watch.
• Earth entered a geomagnetic storm as the solar wind topped 750 km/s.
• Both scheduled checks passed against independent observations.

SPARK then locked BOREALIS's region ranking and ran it on the four months of solar activity that followed. Most of the regions that went on to produce significant flares were already in its top tenth.

A call that comes before the storm gives satellite operators, utilities, and airlines time to protect what's at risk, instead of a report of damage already done.