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Deterministic space-weather forecasting

Advance warning for the storms that start on the Sun.

Solar eruptions can disable satellites, damage grid transformers, black out radio, and reroute flights. BOREALIS, SPARK's proprietary forecasting system, predicts eruptive solar activity and its impact on Earth before it happens, with deterministic warnings that explain themselves.

Space Environment
Discuss BOREALIS
  1. 01

    Forecasts, not alerts

    Warnings that come before the storm, while there is still time to protect what's at risk.

  2. 02

    Explainable by design

    Every warning names the physical conditions behind it, so operators and underwriters can review the call.

  3. 03

    Built on physics

    Deterministic modeling from first principles, not statistics fitted to the storms of the past.

The problem

Space-weather warnings arrive too late to act on.

Most space-weather services rely on alerts issued as events unfold and on statistical probabilities. Operators get confirmation of a storm, not the lead time to prepare for it.

  1. Alerts after the fact

    By the time anyone observes a flare, its radiation and radio effects are already underway.

  2. Probabilities without reasons

    A percentage chance gives an operator nothing to verify and little to act on.

  3. The worst storms are the rarest

    Models fitted to past events are weakest exactly where the stakes are highest.

EVENT TIMELINEt →
Illustration.

What's at stake

One solar storm. Every system that depends on the sky.

  • Power grids

    Induced currents that overheat and damage high-voltage transformers

  • Satellites

    Atmospheric drag, orbital decay, and electronics damage

  • Aviation

    Radiation exposure and diversions on polar routes

  • Communications

    HF radio blackouts and satellite link disruption

  • Navigation

    Degraded GPS and GNSS accuracy

  • Pipelines & rail

    Induced currents in long conductive infrastructure

  • Space missions

    Crew radiation exposure and mission risk

  • Insurance

    Correlated losses across fleets, grids, and regions

The solution

From the Sun's surface to Earth's doorstep, in one forecast.

BOREALIS follows an eruption end to end: whether an active region can erupt, when, whether the eruption heads toward Earth, and how hard it will hit. The result is a clear, graded warning that names its reasons.

WATCHWARNINGIMPACTFORECAST ISSUEDERUPTIONARRIVALSUNEARTH
The forecast comes first.
  • WATCH

    A region has the capacity to erupt. Track it and review readiness.

  • WARNING

    Conditions are aligning for an eruption. Prepare protective procedures.

  • IMPACT

    BOREALIS expects an Earth-directed event. Execute safe-mode, load management, or rerouting.

On the record

Called before the storm hit.

In June 2026, BOREALIS put a storm watch on the record while conditions at Earth were still quiet. Then the storm arrived.

Read the case study

  1. June 4 · 01:18 UTC

    Watch issued

    BOREALIS issues a high-level watch for storm-driving conditions at Earth. Conditions are still quiet.

  2. June 4

    Conditions turn

    Storm-driving conditions arrive and hold, exactly as the watch called for.

  3. June 5 · 12:33 UTC

    The storm peaks

    The strongest conditions of the event arrive, 35 hours after the watch went on the record.

  4. June 5 · 15:12 UTC

    Geomagnetic storm

    Earth's magnetic field reaches storm levels.

  5. June 6

    Call confirmed

    The storm builds further as the solar wind tops 750 km/s. Both scheduled checks against independent observations pass.

Who BOREALIS protects

For everyone whose operations depend on the sky.

Why BOREALIS is different

Forecasting that explains itself.

DimensionConventional forecastingBOREALIS
ApproachConventional forecastingStatistical probabilities drawn from past eventsBOREALISDeterministic modeling from physical first principles
TimingConventional forecastingAlerts as events unfoldBOREALISWatches issued before the storm arrives
ExplainsConventional forecastingA probability, without reasonsBOREALISThe physical conditions driving each warning
Rare extremesConventional forecastingWeakest where history is thinBOREALISDoesn't depend on a history of past storms
DeliversConventional forecastingBulletins to interpretBOREALISGraded warnings ready to connect to operations

Getting started

From first briefing to live warnings.

  1. Stage 01

    Assess exposure

    We review the assets you need to protect (satellites, transformers, routes, or portfolios) and the decisions each warning triggers.

  2. Stage 02

    Prove it on past storms

    Before you commit, we evaluate BOREALIS against past space-weather events relevant to your operations and score it against independent observations.

  3. Stage 03

    Go live

    Graded warnings connect to your operations center, alerting tools, and protective procedures.

Key advantages

Lead time you can act on.

  1. 01

    Ahead of the event

    Warnings arrive while protective action is still possible, not after the storm has begun.

  2. 02

    Every call explained

    Each warning traces to physical conditions that you can review and audit.

  3. 03

    Proven on unseen data

    Locked in June and run on the four months of solar activity that followed, BOREALIS ranked most of the regions that went on to produce significant flares in its top tenth.

  4. 04

    Ready for operations

    Graded warnings designed to drive safe-mode, load-management, and rerouting decisions.

See the storm before it arrives.

BOREALIS is available for evaluation by satellite operators, utilities, aviation, defense, and risk teams, and a real-time solar activity service is in development. Briefings and forecast reviews are available under NDA.

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